The price of a barrel of oil surpassed $110 in May 2026, a level not seen since the 2022 energy crisis. The immediate cause was OPEC+'s decision to cut production by 2 million barrels per day, but the background is more complex: tensions in the Middle East, sanctions on Russia, and a global demand recovering slower than expected.
Every dollar increase in oil prices costs the global economy about $50 billion annually, according to IMF estimates.
The immediate impact on wallets
In importing countries like the European Union, Japan, or India, the energy bill has skyrocketed. Heating oil, gasoline, and freight transport become more expensive, directly passing on to food and consumer goods prices. In Spain, a liter of gasoline is around €1.90, and in the US, a gallon exceeds $4.50. Core inflation, which excludes energy and food, is also rising as companies pass on higher logistics costs.
Governments have responded with temporary relief measures: fuel tax cuts, public transport subsidies, and, in some cases, price controls. But these solutions have a high fiscal cost and do not address the underlying problem: oil dependence.
Winners and losers among producers
For exporting countries, like Saudi Arabia, Russia, or Iraq, high prices are a fiscal relief, but not without risks. A sustained price above $100 could accelerate investment in alternative energies and reduce long-term demand. Moreover, extraordinary revenues do not always translate into stability: in countries like Venezuela or Nigeria, corruption and mismanagement remain obstacles. Russia, meanwhile, uses oil as a geopolitical weapon, but Western sanctions limit its ability to sell at market prices.
The role of OPEC+
OPEC+, which includes Russia, controls about 40% of global oil production. Its decisions to cut or increase output have an immediate effect on global prices, but it faces increasing pressure from consumer countries and the energy transition.
The energy transition as a lifeline
The 2026 oil crisis has revived the debate on the urgency of diversifying energy sources. Countries like Germany, China, and Chile are accelerating investments in solar, wind, and green hydrogen. The cost of renewable energy has fallen by 40% in the last decade, and in many regions it is already cheaper than oil or gas. However, intermittency and lack of storage remain technical challenges.
Artificial intelligence is helping to optimize power grids and predict demand, but we should not exaggerate its immediate impact: most AI solutions in energy are still in pilot phases. What is real is that more and more governments see renewables as a matter of national security, not just climate action.
What does this mean for the world?
Oil prices do not just affect financial markets; they redefine geopolitical alliances, accelerate or slow the energy transition, and hit the poorest countries hardest. If crude stays above $100, we will see increased trade tensions, more investment in alternatives, and likely a recession in some emerging economies. The question is not whether oil will remain important, but for how long and at what cost.