The trade war between the United States and China has entered what analysts describe as its most intense phase since 2019. By mid-2026, reciprocal tariffs imposed by both powers cover more than 70% of traded goods, with lists updated every quarter. The result is not just higher prices for electronics, machinery, and industrial components: it is a silent reordering of global trade routes.
Since January 2026, cargo volume between China and the United States has fallen by 18%, while trade flows between China and Southeast Asia grew 23% in the same period, according to UNCTAD data.
The ripple effect on port logistics
West Coast ports in the United States, long the gateway for Asian goods, are experiencing historic declines in container traffic. In Los Angeles and Long Beach, traffic dropped 30% compared to 2025. Meanwhile, Mexican ports such as Manzanillo and Lázaro Cárdenas have seen a 40% increase in Chinese imports, many of which enter the United States by land, partially bypassing tariffs. This triangulation, though legal, lengthens delivery times and raises logistics costs.
Hardest-hit sectors: semiconductors and automotive
The semiconductor sector, already strained by previous disputes, now faces 35% tariffs on chips made in China and 25% on those designed in the US but assembled in Southeast Asia. Companies like TSMC and Samsung have delayed expansion plans in both countries, awaiting regulatory clarity. The automotive industry, meanwhile, faces a 15% increase in the cost of imported electronic components, leading to upward price revisions for electric vehicles in the US market.
The concept: trade triangulation
It is the practice of shipping goods from an origin country to a destination country through a third country, often to reduce tariff costs. In the current context, Mexico and Vietnam have become the main triangulation hubs between China and the United States.
Corporate response: diversification and warehousing
Many corporations have adopted a 'just-in-case' strategy over traditional 'just-in-time'. Major retail chains and tech manufacturers have increased inventories in warehouses outside China, especially in India and Thailand, to mitigate the impact of potential new tariffs. This stockpiling, however, pushes storage costs up and reduces logistics efficiency. Some companies, like Apple and HP, have begun assembling lower-value products in Mexico and Brazil, though dependence on Chinese components remains high.
Impact on the global consumer
The rising cost of imported goods is already reflected in consumer price indices in the US and Europe. Electronics, from smartphones to home appliances, have increased by 8% to 12% over the past year. In China, imported inflation from more expensive US raw materials and components is also starting to show in the prices of processed foods and fertilizers. The World Bank has warned that if the escalation continues, global trade growth could stall by 2027.
Is there room for negotiation?
Bilateral talks have resumed intermittently but without substantial progress. China insists on the removal of tariffs on its high-tech products, while the US demands changes in China's intellectual property policies and industrial subsidies. Meanwhile, the European Union watches cautiously and has announced a compensation fund for its most exposed industries, such as automotive and machinery. The outcome of this standoff will define not only the rules of global trade but also the map of economic alliances for years to come.
Conclusion: a new order under construction
The tariff war between the United States and China is not a passing episode but a symptom of a structural transformation in world trade. Supply chains are shortening, diversifying, and becoming more regional. For companies, uncertainty has become the only constant. For consumers, the price of geopolitics is paid with every purchase. And for the rest of the world, the challenge is to find its place on a board being reshaped under the shadow of tariffs.