In 2026, global geopolitics has a new battlefield: semiconductors. These tiny components, essential for everything from smartphones to weapons systems and artificial intelligence networks, have become the center of a strategic rivalry between the United States, China, and the European Union. The covid-19 pandemic revealed the fragility of supply chains concentrated in Taiwan and South Korea, and since then, governments compete to build technological sovereignty.
By 2027, global semiconductor demand is estimated to exceed one trillion dollars, driven by artificial intelligence and the electrification of transportation.
The geopolitical chessboard of chips
The United States passed the CHIPS and Science Act in 2022, a $52 billion package to subsidize domestic manufacturing. Three years later, the first fabs in Arizona and Ohio are starting to produce advanced chips, but still far from Taiwan's volumes. China, for its part, invests billions in its own industry, although US sanctions limit its access to the most advanced lithography technology. The EU launched its own plan, the European Chips Act, aiming to double its global production share to 20% by 2030.
What is lithography?
It is the key process for manufacturing chips, using extreme ultraviolet light to etch microscopic circuits onto silicon wafers. Dutch company ASML has a monopoly on the most advanced machines.
Artificial intelligence as a demand driver
The explosion of generative AI and autonomous agents since 2025 has skyrocketed the need for high-performance chips, such as Nvidia GPUs and specialized processors from Google and AMD. Each new language model requires clusters of thousands of chips, and data centers are multiplying. This further strains an already tense supply chain and accelerates the race to build more powerful and energy-efficient chips.
The dilemma of dependency and national security
Taiwan produces over 60% of the world's advanced chips. Any conflict in the strait could paralyze the global economy. That is why countries like Japan, Germany, and the US subsidize new fabs, but building a modern foundry takes years and costs tens of billions. Meanwhile, shortages of specialized talent and ultrapure water in arid regions are real bottlenecks.
Market fragmentation also has consequences for consumers: electronic device prices rise, and innovation slows if companies cannot access the best chips. But competition also drives advances: new materials such as silicon carbide and gallium nitride are being researched, promising faster, more energy-efficient chips.
Towards a world with multiple technology poles?
The future points to a decentralization of production, with poles in the US, Europe, Japan, South Korea, and a sustained effort by China. However, international cooperation remains necessary for technical standards, patents, and supply chain security. Technological sovereignty does not mean autarky, but resilience. The open question is whether this competition will lead to renewed cooperation or fragmentation that makes technology more expensive for everyone.