The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known as OPEC+, met again in Vienna in mid-May 2026 to discuss the future of crude oil production. The meeting, often overlooked by the general public, is drawing increasing attention because its decisions directly affect gasoline prices, inflation, and geopolitical relations between blocs.
Brent crude has stayed above $85 per barrel since April 2026, pressuring central banks still battling inflation.
Why is OPEC+ still cutting production?
Since late 2025, the alliance led by Saudi Arabia and Russia has maintained voluntary cuts of around 2 million barrels per day. The official reason is to avoid a supply glut that would crash prices. But there is another factor: rising shale oil production in the United States and new deepwater fields in Brazil are eroding OPEC+'s market share. Each cut is partly an attempt to sustain revenues for member countries, many of which need high prices to balance their budgets.
The role of new producers
Countries like Guyana, Brazil and the United States have increased production without being subject to OPEC+ quotas. This fragments the cartel's power and forces a rethink of the cut strategy.
Impact on the global economy and inflation
An expensive barrel doesn't just affect drivers. Transport costs soar, industrial production becomes more expensive, and food prices rise. In emerging economies that import most of their crude, each additional dollar is a heavy blow to foreign exchange reserves and debt repayment capacity. The International Monetary Fund has warned that if oil stays above $90 for a sustained period, interest rates in countries like India or Turkey could rise another percentage point.
Does it accelerate the energy transition?
Paradoxically, high oil prices are also an incentive to accelerate the shift to renewable energy. Companies worldwide are seeing that electricity from solar or wind is becoming increasingly competitive with fossil fuels. However, dependence on oil remains huge: 60% of global transport runs on crude derivatives. The replacement won't happen overnight.
What does this mean for the world?
OPEC+ decisions are not made in a vacuum. Behind every barrel cut is a power game between Saudi Arabia and Russia, a bid for influence over China, and a tug-of-war with the United States. Meanwhile, consuming countries are seeking to diversify their energy sources and build strategic reserves. The next time you fill up your car's tank or look at your heating bill, remember: the price you pay is largely decided in a meeting room in Vienna.
The lingering question is whether OPEC+ can maintain its influence in the long term. With the emergence of new producers, the advance of renewables, and international pressure to cut emissions, the traditional oil cartel may be living its last years of absolute hegemony.