The global energy transition has a name in 2026: Africa. Not just as a supplier of raw materials, but as the stage where the rules of the energy game are being rewritten. The continent holds over 60% of the world's cobalt reserves, a third of its manganese, and significant amounts of lithium and graphite — all essential for the batteries powering electric vehicles and storing renewable energy. Yet, some 600 million Africans still live without electricity.
Africa has 60% of the world's best solar resources, but generates only 2% of global solar electricity.
The critical minerals paradox
Countries like the Democratic Republic of Congo, Zambia, and Zimbabwe have become the focus of governments and corporations seeking to secure supplies for the green economy. But the history of extraction in Africa is filled with unfulfilled promises: mining enclaves that generate wealth for a few while local communities remain without basic services. The difference now is that demand is so high that some countries are imposing conditions to benefit from local processing.
Local value addition
Several African governments have begun demanding that a portion of mineral processing be done within their borders as a condition for granting extraction licenses, seeking to capture a larger share of the battery supply chain value.
The desert as a power plant
While the minerals debate intensifies, a quiet revolution is advancing in the Sahel and the Horn of Africa. Large-scale solar and wind projects are starting to change the continent's energy map. Morocco already operates one of the world's largest solar plants, and countries like Kenya and Ethiopia lead in geothermal and hydropower. The potential is so vast that the Sahara could, in theory, generate enough electricity to power the entire planet.
However, transmission infrastructure and investment in local grids remain the Achilles' heel. Without lines connecting plants to consumption centers — and without affordable financing — much of that clean energy risks being exported to Europe or North Africa, leaving rural communities without the benefits of the shift.
International cooperation and energy sovereignty
The European Union, China, and the United States compete for influence in Africa's energy sector, but with different approaches. Beijing finances large infrastructure in exchange for resource access, Brussels pushes technology partnerships, and Washington promotes decentralized small-scale projects. For African governments, the challenge is navigating these offers without compromising sovereignty or repeating the cycle of colonial dependency.
Jobs of the future: mining or clean energy?
The energy transition could create millions of jobs in Africa over the next decade, both in responsible mining and in the installation and maintenance of solar and wind systems. The key lies in technical training and policies that prevent labor exploitation. Some local startups are already training young people as solar panel technicians, offering a real alternative to emigration or informal work.
What does this mean for the world?
The future of global decarbonization depends largely on what happens in Africa in the coming years. If the continent manages to leapfrog directly to a distributed, renewable energy model, it could become an example of sustainable development for the Global South. If, on the contrary, it consolidates as a mere exporter of raw materials, the global green transition will be built on the same inequalities that the fossil fuel model sought to overcome. 2026 is, for Africa, a defining year.