As the world accelerates its race toward renewable energy and electric vehicles, one region is once again at the epicenter of resource geopolitics: Africa. The continent's subsoil holds some of the largest global reserves of critical minerals such as cobalt, lithium, manganese and graphite — essential for batteries, wind turbines and solar panels. But Africa's history with its natural resources has too often been one of extraction without development.
Global demand for lithium could increase tenfold by 2030, and demand for cobalt sixfold, in an accelerated energy transition scenario. Africa holds more than 60% of the world's cobalt reserves and a growing share of lithium.
The mineral wealth dilemma
Countries like the Democratic Republic of Congo, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Namibia and Mali are key players in this new mining rush. However, mineral extraction has historically been marked by lack of transparency, armed conflict, child labor and limited value transfer to local economies. The paradox is brutal: regions producing materials for a cleaner future often live in energy precarity, with constant blackouts and without access to the technologies they themselves supply.
The current debate is not new, but it carries a renewed urgency. African governments, such as those of Namibia and Botswana, have begun demanding greater local processing of minerals, seeking to move beyond raw material exports. Building refineries and processing plants on African soil could transform the economic equation, but requires massive investment, stable infrastructure, and above all, political will — both local and international.
Energy as the key to development
In parallel, Africa faces its own energy transition. More than 600 million people in the continent lack access to electricity, according to the International Energy Agency. The potential for renewables — solar, wind, geothermal — is immense, but infrastructure remains insufficient. Projects like the Sahara Solar Initiative and wind farms in Kenya and Morocco point toward a model shift, but international financing and technology transfer remain pending tasks.
Resource governance
The Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) and regional frameworks like the Africa Mining Vision aim to help producer countries gain greater control and benefits from their resources. However, corruption, unbalanced contracts, and the influence of large corporations remain real obstacles.
The role of global powers
China, the United States and the European Union are competing to secure access to these minerals. Beijing has invested heavily in mines and refineries in the DRC and Zimbabwe, while Washington pushes the 'Minerals for Energy Security' program and the EU negotiates partnership agreements. This geopolitical competition could be an opportunity for African countries to negotiate better terms, but also risks becoming a new version of the colonial resource scramble, if decisions are not made with and for local communities.
What does this mean for the world?
The fate of the global energy transition is intrinsically linked to what happens in Africa. If the continent manages to build robust governance, attract investment that generates employment, and process its minerals locally, it could emerge as an industrial and energy hub of the 21st century. If, on the other hand, extractivist patterns of the past are repeated, the result will be more inequality, instability, and a green transition stained by injustice. International attention, civil society pressure, and the decisions of African governments will define the course of this still-unwritten story.